Economic Survey 2010 – Quick Hits

Thursday, May 20, 2010


Capital Markets
- Volume of equities traded during the year increased from 855 million to 1.12 billion, raising the value of shares to 13.04 billion
- NSE capitalization dropped from 854 billion to 832 billion on declined share prices
- NSE 20 dropped 7.8% to 3,247 point.
- The credit referencing bureau regulation and the Anti-Money Laundering Act came into effect
- The top ten firms at the NSE accounted for 73.9% of total equities capitalization.
- There was an increase in the number of foreign investors at the NSE, who now hold 26% of the market.
- 90% of Nyaga investors were paid (what happened to the other 10%?)

Agriculture
- A substantial number of animals were slaughtered during the year due to drought (Nyam Chom was the order of the day)

Tourism
- Earnings improved to Ksh.62.5 billon representing a 18.6% increase
- International arrivals went up 24% to 1.5 million visitors despite ‘swine flu’ threats.

Transport
- Less vehicles were bought (mostly station wagons – 27k), but more motor bikes (boda bodas – 16k in 07, 51k in 08 and 92k in 09)
- Road accidents increased 36%. Leading to the drafting of the National Road Safety Action Plan 2009 - 2014.
- Established three road management agencies during the year (KeNHA, KeRRA and KURA) – why three?!
- Fuel levy raised Ksh.19.7 billion for government.

Communication
- Mobile subscribers increased by 34.2% to 17.4 million – almost half of Kenya’s population
- Demand fro fixed line connections dropped 72.4% as people shifted to mobile and wireless devices.
- Mobile phone money transfer subscribers increased to 7.7 million from 5.5 million in 2008.
- Number of sms sent by Kenyans rose from 362 million in 2008 to 3.3 billion in 2009 (wow! Facebook notifications, please call me back, insufficient funds and m-pesa/zap notifications all included)
- Kenya has 3.6 million internet users.
- The Kenya Communication Amendment Act 2009 was passed. Captures cyber crimes (waiting for a more detailed e-transaction bill to pass)
- CCK is not giving out any more TV frequencies (now capped at 81) as it prepares for digital TV.
- Fm stations increased to 303 from 268 although 9 frequencies were revoked due to hoarding.
- 55,400 new jobs were created in the communication/financial sector.

Labour/wages
- Construction sector registered the highest growth in employment rate growth due to the government road construction initiative and private building coming up
- Although private sector wages are still high, public sector is narrowing the gap.
- Wages are high in Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sectors (average 803k p.a.) – more than double the average national wage of 378k p.a
- The study does not mention Kenya’s unemployment rate.

Demographics
- Women and men between the ages of 15-35 are the majority, with 72% women and 68% men.
- 58% of women between 15-49 are married or in an informal union (with a man) compared to 51% of men (with a woman)
- Women are more than twice likely to be widowed, divorced or separated.
- Fertility rate is at 4.6 births per woman.
- Fertility in women peaks at 24 years in rural areas and 29 years in urban areas.
- 1 in 14 children die before age 5 (down from 1 in every 10)
- More than half of the women are using some kind of contraceptive (mostly injections and periodic abstinence). Central province has the highest number of women on contraceptives.
- 39% of women between 15-49 (mostly older) have been physically or socially violated (mostly in Nyanza and Western provinces)

Education
- Form 1 enrollment went up – mostly gals;
- no teachers were recruited in 2009 due to a court case about intern teachers (but recruited in April this year);
- University enrolment up 45% - mostly public/part-time students.

Different Strokes

Wednesday, May 19, 2010


*round-up*

On the low end: I don’t want to sound like a skeptic, but I find nothing new with the M-kesho product by Equity bank and Safaricom. Too complex and not particularly new (Zap does it with Stanchart, M-pesa with KCB). It’s yet another typical hyped James Mwangi style of massive account opening scheme. What the M-kesho does is just get more accounts opened at Equity and probably a few more transactions for M-pesa. Other than that, it’s a low interest savings account, with zero opening balance and an enhanced ‘okoa jahazi’ loan facility. How much is the interest rate on the loans?

On the high end: Stanchart launched another high end segment product – Priority Banking, targeting net worth customers and include the Visa Infinite Debit Visa card. They say it has “No additional fee” type but then it won’t be high-end.

AccessKenya is in some serious trouble; boardroom wrangles, bad investments in Openview, media wars and CMA may be on their case. Some one once told me the reason he won’t list on the NSE is because Kenyans don’t value IT firms. With the circus at AK, I want to believe it’s them who don’t value us. And they did not have to publish a tweet-like announcement that they are postponing their May AGM to August.

Anonymity: @Bankelele lost his on joining the Ushahidi team (Congrats!)

Disclaimer

Information on this blog is based on data available to the author and his own personal opinion. The author cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information on this blog.